Two years ago, crypto traders watched CPI hoping for rate cuts. On Tuesday they watched it to see how big the next hike would be. October’s US inflation report came in hot on both the headline and the core number, and bitcoin briefly broke below Monday’s low as the Federal Reserve’s December 9 decision began to look like a formality.
There is a twist: this month there is no official annual inflation rate at all.
Key facts
- US headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October 2026, above the 0.3% economists expected, after 0.6% in September, the BLS said on November 10.
- Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast and matching August and September.
- The BLS published no 12-month headline rate because it did not collect October 2025 price data during the federal government shutdown.
- Energy rose 0.7% after 5.2% in September; food rose 0.5% after 0.0%; shelter rose 0.3%.
- Bitcoin fell to about $73,600 after the release, near its 200-day moving average of roughly $73,170; ether traded near $2,070.
- Markets now expect a 0.25-point Fed hike to 4.00–4.25% at the December 8–9 meeting; the two-year Treasury yield rose 14 basis points to 4.69%.
What did the October 2026 CPI report show?
October CPI showed prices rising faster than expected: 0.4% on the headline and 0.3% on core, each a tenth above consensus. Energy cooled from September’s 5.2% jump but still rose 0.7%, food accelerated to 0.5%, and shelter added 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Annualised, a 0.4% monthly pace is just under 4.9%, and 0.3% on core is about 3.7% — both far from the Fed’s 2% target. That 3.7% figure echoes September’s annual reading, which suggests inflation is not cooling into year-end.
Why there is no annual inflation rate
The BLS says it “did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations.” Without October 2025 prices there is nothing to compare October 2026 against, so the headline 12-month change is simply blank. A few series, such as gasoline, still carry annual figures. For markets, it means the monthly prints carry even more weight than usual.
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
Markets think so. A 0.25-percentage-point hike at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting, lifting the target range from 3.75–4.00% to 4.00–4.25%, was already priced before the data; after it, CoinDesk described the hike as all but certain.
The Fed already signalled the shift in October, when two officials dissented in favour of a hike. Governor Christopher Waller has said a hot print could even justify a half-point move, though it is unclear whether a majority agrees. The November CPI report lands on December 10 — the day after the decision — so October’s data is the last inflation print the committee sees.
The question for December is no longer “if”, but “how much”.
How did bitcoin react to the CPI data?
Bitcoin dipped from about $74,600 before the release to roughly $73,600 after it, briefly breaking Monday’s low of $73,636, before recovering to around $73,900 in the afternoon — down 1.3% on the day and 4.4% on the week. Sunday’s low of $73,477 held, and the 200-day moving average sits only about 1% below.
Ether fared worse, trading near $2,070, down 2.9% on the day and 9.4% on the week. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.282 billion in the first week of November, according to SoSoValue, and the Fear & Greed Index stood at 32. For leveraged traders, the arithmetic is unforgiving: at 10x, a drop of just under 10% wipes out the collateral, and exchange maintenance margins put the real liquidation price closer still. Not financial advice.
What this means for swap users
Macro-driven volatility tends to arrive in bursts around data releases, and that is when the spread between swap quotes widens. If you swap around a CPI print or a Fed decision, compare providers and consider locking a fixed rate so that a sudden move does not change what you receive — our guide to fixed vs floating rates explains the trade-off.
SwapZilla lists every provider’s quote for the same pair side by side and sends the result to your own wallet, with no account and no exchange balance to manage. If you prefer to compare on-chain routes too, the DEX shelf shows CEX and DEX quotes in one list.
Final thoughts
October’s CPI did not shock anyone; it confirmed the direction. Inflation is running well above target, the Fed is set to tighten on December 9, and bitcoin is leaning on its 200-day average with five losing weeks behind it. The next markers are the December decision and the November CPI the day after. Until then, expect the data calendar, not crypto news, to set the pace.