No cut, no hike — and two votes for more tightening. On Wednesday, October 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00%, six weeks after September’s hike. The decision was 10 to 2, and both dissenters wanted to raise rates again.
For crypto, a hold that leans hawkish is a familiar shape: no immediate shock, but no relief either. Bitcoin traded near $81,200 that evening, roughly flat on the day.
Key facts
- The Fed held the federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00% on October 28, 2026.
- The vote was 10–2: Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point hike to 4.00–4.25%.
- The statement says “Inflation remains elevated” and describes economic activity expanding “at a strong pace.”
- Interest on reserve balances is 3.90%, effective October 29; the discount rate is 4.0% and the overnight reverse repo rate 3.75%.
- Bitcoin traded near $81,200 on the evening of October 28, down about 4% over seven days; Ether near $2,358, down about 5.5%.
- The next decision is December 9, 2026, with updated economic projections.
What did the Fed decide on October 28, 2026?
The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75–4.00%, after raising it by 25 basis points on September 17. Ten members voted for the hold. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented because they wanted another quarter-point increase to 4.00–4.25%.
The Fed’s statement says “Inflation remains elevated”, notes that job gains are keeping pace with labour-force growth, and describes economic activity as expanding “at a strong pace”. The implementation note sets interest on reserve balances at 3.90% from October 29.
Why the dissents matter
Two votes for a hike at a meeting that holds is a signal: part of the committee thinks policy isn’t tight enough yet. That keeps another increase on the table for December, especially after September CPI came in at 3.7%, as we covered in our CPI report.
A hawkish hold is still a hold — until the next meeting.
How did Bitcoin react to the Fed decision?
Quietly. Bitcoin traded near $81,200 on the evening of October 28, roughly flat from the previous day and down a little over 4% across seven days. Ether was near $2,358, about 5.5% lower over the week. The market had largely priced a hold; the dissents added a hawkish tilt rather than a surprise.
The bigger macro moves for crypto this month came from inflation and oil, not the Fed itself. And as the following day would show, crypto’s own risks can move prices faster than any central bank. This is not financial advice.
What does the Fed decision mean for crypto in November and December?
Three dates matter. The October CPI report on November 12 will show whether energy-led inflation is spreading. The December 8–9 FOMC meeting, with a decision on December 9, brings a new Summary of Economic Projections — the “dot plot”. And any further energy shock could change the picture in between.
- If inflation cools: the hold looks like a peak, and leveraged positioning in crypto can rebuild.
- If inflation stays hot: the two dissents could become a majority, and risk assets including Bitcoin may face another round of deleveraging.
At 5x leverage, a roughly 20% adverse move triggers liquidation; at 10x, roughly 10% — margins that macro surprises have tested repeatedly this year, as on October 15.
What this means for swap users
Rate decisions tend to bring a burst of volatility around the announcement and then a quieter drift. If you are rebalancing between BTC, ETH and stablecoins around such events, compare live quotes from several providers on SwapZilla and consider a fixed rate so the amount you receive doesn’t move while your deposit confirms.
Our guide to fixed vs floating rates explains the trade-off, and our Bitcoin outlook sets out scenarios for the longer term — without pretending to know the next print.
Final thoughts
October’s decision tells you less about where rates are than where the debate is: not whether to cut, but whether to hike again. Until that question is answered, crypto trades with a hawkish Fed in the background — and with its own, very different risks in the foreground.